Analysis of road transportation energy consumption demand in China

Jian Chai; Quan-Ying Lu; Shou-Yang Wang; Kin Keung Lai

doi:10.1016/j.trd.2016.08.009

Author(s)

Jian Chai
Quan-Ying Lu
Shou-Yang Wang
Kin Keung Lai

Related Research Unit(s)

Department of Management Sciences

Detail(s)

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	112-124
Journal / Publication	Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment
Volume	48
Online published	18 Aug 2016
Publication status	Published - Oct 2016

Link(s)

DOI	DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2016.08.009 Final Published version
	Check@CityULib
Link to Scopus	https://www.scopus.com/record/display.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84982292042&origin=recordpage
Permanent Link	https://scholars.cityu.edu.hk/en/publications/publication(3a5e7391-36c2-4438-ad73-8cb6cf238438).html

Abstract

In this paper, we first analyze the historical trends in road transportation energy consumption and GDP in developed economies to find out the development characteristics of road energy consumption. The two indexes present obvious ‘S’ type patterns. Then, in order to explore the current status and future trend of road energy transportation in China, we employ path analysis to analyze the impact mechanism of the factors related to road transportation energy consumption. Next, we adopt the BMA model to select the core factors related to road transportation energy consumption in China, and on the basis of the model selection as well as univariate (ETS & ARIMA models) and multivariate (multiple regression) models, the road transportation energy consumption is analyzed and forecast. The results showed that the road transportation energy consumption rises by 0.33 percent for every percent increase in GDP and by 1.26 percentage points for every percent increase in urbanization. The road transportation energy consumption in China is expected to reach around 226181.1 ktoe by the end of 2015, and about 347,363 ktoe by 2020.

Research Area(s)

ARIMA, BMA, ETS, Path analysis, Road transportation energy consumption, Trend analysis

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Citation Format(s)

[ RIS ] [ BibTeX ]

Analysis of road transportation energy consumption demand in China. / Chai, Jian; Lu, Quan-Ying; Wang, Shou-Yang et al.
In: Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Vol. 48, 10.2016, p. 112-124.

Research output: Journal Publications and Reviews › RGC 21 - Publication in refereed journal › peer-review

Chai, J, Lu, Q-Y, Wang, S-Y & Lai, KK 2016, 'Analysis of road transportation energy consumption demand in China', Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, vol. 48, pp. 112-124. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2016.08.009

Chai, J., Lu, Q.-Y., Wang, S.-Y., & Lai, K. K. (2016). Analysis of road transportation energy consumption demand in China. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 48, 112-124. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2016.08.009

Chai J, Lu QY, Wang SY, Lai KK. Analysis of road transportation energy consumption demand in China. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment. 2016 Oct;48:112-124. Epub 2016 Aug 18. doi: 10.1016/j.trd.2016.08.009

Chai, Jian ; Lu, Quan-Ying ; Wang, Shou-Yang et al. / Analysis of road transportation energy consumption demand in China. In: Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment. 2016 ; Vol. 48. pp. 112-124.