A risk-based energy-structure balance development model for restoring the sustainability of energy-economy-ecological complex system

Faced with the degraded ecological environment, it is necessary to optimize the energy structure and inter-regional energy trade framework to achieve sustainable and balanced development. A RIMSP-based energy-structure balance development model is proposed to solve the contradictions among energy consumption, economic system cost, and ecological emissions. In this study, the systemic risks and uncertainties are considered through integrating the Conditional Value at Risk module, Interval Programming, Multi-Stage stochastic Programming, and Integer Programming. A typical region with unbalanced energy endowments and economic development, Shanxi Province, China was investigated to illustrate the model applicability and superiority. It is found that the probability of system failures can be controlled within 1% and the most stable energy system will be found when risk weighted coefficient at 20. The optimal power generation schemes can be obtained for target power generation stage with compensation mechanism and for recourse power generation stage with substitution ratio of 20%, 15%, and 10% at three planning periods, respectively. The total installed capacity of clean energy is expected to reach approximately 41.4% by 2035. Wind power and solar power have more advantages than natural gas power in responding to flexible power demand and long-term sustainable requirements. In addition, the emissions of Particulate Matter, Sulfur Dioxide, Nitrogen Oxide, and Carbon Dioxide would be reduced to varying degrees. The results can provide a solid scientific basis for formulating balanced development policies to restore the ecological environment related to energy consumption.