A Model and a Simulator for Disaster Recovery

The level of economic and social cost arising from large scale disasters has become apparent in recent years. One of the conclusions that can be drawn from recent experiences is that both corporations and regulators have difficulty in predicting both the post disaster scenario, and the results of management actions in these scenarios. This paper discusses an approach that could lead to improvements in tackling this problem. The fundamental approach is iterative; a model of the system from a disaster recovery viewpoint is formulated, a prototype simulator of that model is produced, the simulator tested to provide experience of post disaster scenarios, and then this simulator experience is employed to refine the model. The model itself is based upon resource flows and the system is represented as a set of interconnected sinks and sources.