A Heterogeneous Branching Process with Immigration Modeling for COVID-19 Spreading in Local Communities in China

Lin Zhang; Haochen Wang; Zhongyang Liu; Xiao Fan Liu; Xin Feng; Ye Wu

doi:10.1155/2021/6686547

Author(s)

Lin Zhang
Haochen Wang
Zhongyang Liu
Xin Feng
Ye Wu

Related Research Unit(s)

Department of Media and Communication

Detail(s)

Original language	English
Article number	6686547
Journal / Publication	Complexity
Volume	2021
Online published	22 May 2021
Publication status	Published - 2021

Link(s)

DOI	DOI https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/6686547 Final Published version
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Attachment(s)	Documents 78115509.pdf Final Published version, 1.61 MB, PDF Publisher's Copyright Statement This full text is made available under CC-BY 4.0. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Link to Scopus	https://www.scopus.com/record/display.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85107201580&origin=recordpage
Permanent Link	https://scholars.cityu.edu.hk/en/publications/publication(616ef50d-aab6-436b-b78e-42074e4eb0ad).html

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic spread catastrophically over the world since the spring of 2020. In this paper, a heterogeneous branching process with immigration is established to quantify the human-to-human transmission of COVID-19 in local communities, based on the temporal and structural transmission patterns extracted from public case disclosures by four provincial Health Commissions in China. With proper parameter settings, our branching model matches the actual transmission chains satisfactorily and, therefore, sheds light on the underlying COVID-19 spreading mechanism. Moreover, based on our branching model, the efficacy of home quarantine and social distancing are explored, providing a reference for the effective prevention of COVID-19 worldwide.

Research Area(s)

Citation Format(s)

[ RIS ] [ BibTeX ]

A Heterogeneous Branching Process with Immigration Modeling for COVID-19 Spreading in Local Communities in China. / Zhang, Lin; Wang, Haochen; Liu, Zhongyang et al.
In: Complexity, Vol. 2021, 6686547, 2021.

Research output: Journal Publications and Reviews › RGC 21 - Publication in refereed journal › peer-review

Zhang, L, Wang, H, Liu, Z, Liu, XF, Feng, X & Wu, Y 2021, 'A Heterogeneous Branching Process with Immigration Modeling for COVID-19 Spreading in Local Communities in China', Complexity, vol. 2021, 6686547. https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/6686547

Zhang, L., Wang, H., Liu, Z., Liu, X. F., Feng, X., & Wu, Y. (2021). A Heterogeneous Branching Process with Immigration Modeling for COVID-19 Spreading in Local Communities in China. Complexity, 2021, Article 6686547. https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/6686547

Zhang L, Wang H, Liu Z, Liu XF, Feng X, Wu Y. A Heterogeneous Branching Process with Immigration Modeling for COVID-19 Spreading in Local Communities in China. Complexity. 2021;2021:6686547. Epub 2021 May 22. doi: 10.1155/2021/6686547

Zhang, Lin ; Wang, Haochen ; Liu, Zhongyang et al. / A Heterogeneous Branching Process with Immigration Modeling for COVID-19 Spreading in Local Communities in China. In: Complexity. 2021 ; Vol. 2021.

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