A generalized intelligent agent based fuzzy group forecasting model for oil price prediction

In this study, a generalized Intelligent agent based fuzzy group forecasting model is proposed for oil price prediction. In the proposed model, some single Intelligent agent based predictors with much disagreement are first created for crude oil price prediction. Then these single prediction results produced by these single intelligent predictors are fuzzified into some fuzzy prediction representations. Particularly, some methods of fuzzification are extended into a consolidated framework to make the later computation generalization. Subsequently, these fuzzified prediction representations are integrated into a fuzzy consensus, i.e., aggregated fuzzy prediction. Finally, the aggregated fuzzy prediction is defuzzified into a crisp value as the final prediction results. For verification and testing purposes, two typical oil price series are used to conduct the experiments. © 2008 IEEE.