A fuzzy-theory-based method for studying the effect of information transmission on nonlinear crowd dispersion dynamics

Emergencies involved in mass events are related to a variety of factors and processes. An important factor is the transmission of information on danger that has an influence on nonlinear crowd dynamics during the process of crowd dispersion. Due to much uncertainty in this process, there is an urgent need to propose a method to investigate the influence. In this paper, a novel fuzzy-theory-based method is presented to study crowd dynamics under the influence of information transmission. Fuzzy functions and rules are designed for the ambiguous description of human states. Reasonable inference is employed to decide the output values of decision making such as pedestrian movement speed and directions. Through simulation under four-way pedestrian situations, good crowd dispersion phenomena are achieved. Simulation results under different conditions demonstrate that information transmission cannot always induce successful crowd dispersion in all situations. This depends on whether decision strategies in response to information on danger are unified and effective, especially in dense crowds. Results also suggest that an increase in drift strength at low density and the percentage of pedestrians, who choose one of the furthest unoccupied Von Neumann neighbors from the dangerous source as the drift direction at high density, is helpful in crowd dispersion. Compared with previous work, our comprehensive study improves an in-depth understanding of nonlinear crowd dynamics under the effect of information on danger.