A dynamic model of transmission and elimination of peste des petits ruminants in Ethiopia

Research output: Journal Publications and Reviews (RGC: 21, 22, 62)21_Publication in refereed journal

18 Scopus Citations
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Author(s)

  • Guillaume Fournié
  • Agnès Waret-Szkuta
  • Anton Camacho
  • Laike M. Yigezu
  • François Roger

Detail(s)

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)8454-8459
Journal / PublicationProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Volume115
Issue number33
Online published27 Jul 2018
Publication statusPublished - 14 Aug 2018

Link(s)

Abstract

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR), a devastating viral disease of sheep and goats, has been targeted by the global community for eradication within the next 15 years. Although an efficacious attenuated live vaccine is available, the lack of knowledge about the transmission potential of PPR virus (PPRV) may compromise eradication efforts. By fitting a metapopulation model simulating PPRV spread to the results of a nationwide serological survey in Ethiopia, we estimated the level of viral transmission in an endemic setting and the vaccination coverage required for elimination. Results suggest that the pastoral production system as a whole acts as a viral reservoir, from which PPRV spills over into the sedentary production system, where viral persistence is uncertain. Estimated levels of PPRV transmission indicate that viral spread could be prevented if the proportion of immune small ruminants is kept permanently above 37% in at least 71% of pastoral village populations. However, due to the high turnover of these populations, maintaining the fraction of immune animals above this threshold would require high vaccine coverage within villages, and vaccination campaigns to be conducted annually. Adapting vaccination strategies to the specific characteristics of the local epidemiological context and small ruminant population dynamics would result in optimized allocation of limited resources and increase the likelihood of PPR eradication.

Research Area(s)

  • eradication, elimination, mathematical model, vaccination, control, WILD SMALL RUMINANTS, VIRUS, GOATS, DISEASE, CATTLE, SHEEP, PPR, SEROPREVALENCE, SURVEILLANCE, MANAGEMENT

Citation Format(s)

A dynamic model of transmission and elimination of peste des petits ruminants in Ethiopia. / Fournié, Guillaume; Waret-Szkuta, Agnès; Camacho, Anton; Yigezu, Laike M.; Pfeiffer, Dirk U.; Roger, François.

In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Vol. 115, No. 33, 14.08.2018, p. 8454-8459.

Research output: Journal Publications and Reviews (RGC: 21, 22, 62)21_Publication in refereed journal

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