2024 global temperature record is consistent with model-predicted warming

Michael E. Mann; Byron A. Steinman; Alejandro Fernandez; Shannon A. Christiansen; Xueke Li

doi:10.1073/pnas.2600021123

2024 global temperature record is consistent with model-predicted warming

Michael E. Mann^*
, Byron A. Steinman
, Alejandro Fernandez
, Shannon A. Christiansen
, Xueke Li

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Journal Publications and Reviews › RGC 21 - Publication in refereed journal › peer-review

Abstract

We employ a semiempirical approach combining climate model simulations and observational temperatures to assess the likelihood of recent global temperature records. Monte Carlo simulations are used to generate global temperature series consistent with combined estimates of forced (anthropogenic + natural) and internal variability derived from observations and CMIP6 multimodel simulations. We find that the El Niño-boosted 2024 global temperature record had a ~12% likelihood of occurrence (a one-in-eight-year event), similar to the prior (also El Niño-boosted) record year 2016 (~14% likelihood). Of the records set during the past three decades, only 1998 is found to have been truly anomalous, with a ~2.5% likelihood of occurrence. Each of these records is found to have been nearly impossible in the absence of human-caused warming. © 2026 the Author(s).

Original language	English
Article number	e2600021123
Number of pages	7
Journal	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Volume	123
Issue number	20
Online published	11 May 2026
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2600021123
Publication status	Published - 19 May 2026
Externally published	Yes

Funding

This work was supported by funding from The University of Pennsylvania. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output. HadCRUT5 data were obtained from http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut5 on Oct 20, 2025, and are © British Crown Copyright, Met Office (2021), provided under an Open Government License, http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/. We thank both Stephan Lewandowsky and Tim Osborn for their extremely helpful comments and constructive reviews.

Research Keywords

climate change
climate extremes
temperature records

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This full text is made available under CC-BY 4.0. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

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abstract = "We employ a semiempirical approach combining climate model simulations and observational temperatures to assess the likelihood of recent global temperature records. Monte Carlo simulations are used to generate global temperature series consistent with combined estimates of forced (anthropogenic + natural) and internal variability derived from observations and CMIP6 multimodel simulations. We find that the El Ni{\~n}o-boosted 2024 global temperature record had a \textasciitilde{}12\% likelihood of occurrence (a one-in-eight-year event), similar to the prior (also El Ni{\~n}o-boosted) record year 2016 (\textasciitilde{}14\% likelihood). Of the records set during the past three decades, only 1998 is found to have been truly anomalous, with a \textasciitilde{}2.5\% likelihood of occurrence. Each of these records is found to have been nearly impossible in the absence of human-caused warming. {\textcopyright} 2026 the Author(s).",

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2024 global temperature record is consistent with model-predicted warming. / Mann, Michael E.; Steinman, Byron A.; Fernandez, Alejandro et al.
In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Vol. 123, No. 20, e2600021123, 19.05.2026.

Research output: Journal Publications and Reviews › RGC 21 - Publication in refereed journal › peer-review

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AU - Steinman, Byron A.

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AU - Christiansen, Shannon A.

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PY - 2026/5/19

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AB - We employ a semiempirical approach combining climate model simulations and observational temperatures to assess the likelihood of recent global temperature records. Monte Carlo simulations are used to generate global temperature series consistent with combined estimates of forced (anthropogenic + natural) and internal variability derived from observations and CMIP6 multimodel simulations. We find that the El Niño-boosted 2024 global temperature record had a ~12% likelihood of occurrence (a one-in-eight-year event), similar to the prior (also El Niño-boosted) record year 2016 (~14% likelihood). Of the records set during the past three decades, only 1998 is found to have been truly anomalous, with a ~2.5% likelihood of occurrence. Each of these records is found to have been nearly impossible in the absence of human-caused warming. © 2026 the Author(s).

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2024 global temperature record is consistent with model-predicted warming

Abstract

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Research Keywords

Publisher's Copyright Statement

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