高速铁路与经济增长的因果关系: 基于时空理论视角下中国省域面板资料的计量分析

Regarding the influence of China’s high speed railway supply on economic growth and industrial structure and how the industrial structure, urbanization ratio and population density determine high speed railway supply, this paper analyzed the immediate effect, fast effect and slow effect mechanisms between high speed railway and economic growth. From the perspective of the impact of high speed railway on economic growth, China’s provincial panel data from 2005 to 2014 shows that during the last ten years, the immediate effect and fats effect of high speed railway deteriorate gradually, and slow effect dominates for high speed railways high time value and transport expenditure, which leads to the fact that high speed railway renders no significant influence on China as a whole or central China while it has a significant positive impact on east China and significant negative impact on west China. The implication is that high speed railway is not the reason of economic growth; From the perspective of the impact of economy on high speed railway, Logit model study on the triggering mechanism shows that the immediate effect, slow effect and fast effect of high speed railway are derived demand of the original demand of national economy, tertiary industry, urbanization ratio and population density significantly determine the supply of high speed railway.