网络舆论的同音效应——基于选择螺旋和真基模拟的分析

This study found that, selective spiral, due to its mathematical nature, tends to monotonize, a phenomenon previously undocumented in academic literature. Through selective release, selective reception, selective relay, and some repetitions of the subsequent reception-relay recycle, a certain type of information preferred by receivers or relayers will dominate, monopolize, and eventually monotonize, i.e., becoming virtually the only information relayed and read, even when the preferences of the other users differ or counter that of the dominant group.
The data for the study came from nearly five million postings and the related user responses crawled in almost 30 months from January 2015 to June 2017, from www.toutiao.com, which constitute all crawlable content and behavior data from the platform during the time period. From the dataset all postings with the Chinese keyword “ri ben,” i.e., Japan, were selected, giving us about 47,224 titles, 5,237,308,573 clicks to read, and 28,129,768 clicks to relay, aka share or forward, for further analysis. The titles were content-analyzed following the procedure of Analysis of Big Content by People-Instructed Machine (ABC-PIM). Three valence variables were coded, valence from the standpoint of China, i.e., positive, neutral, or negative for China, from the standpoint of Japan, or from the standpoint of journalism textbooks. The valence variables represented three selecting factors that may affect users’ behavior of release, read, and relay, making three cases for this study.
The direct observation of this study was on round zero, i.e., the initial round, of communication spiral, according to the theory of selective spiral. Relay is the product of round zero negation between releasers, receivers, and relayers, according to the theory of negotiated communication, derived from sociology of knowledge. Guided by the integrated theory of negotiated spiral, the study reports that, for each of the three cases, the releasers were found to be the most selective (s₁=.79), thereby the most influential (c_t=.82), in round zero. The readers, representing receivers (s₁=.37), were far less selective than the releasers but far more selective than the relayers (s₁=.02). Consequently, the receivers (c_t=.17) were between the releasers and the relayers (c_t<.01) in influencing the distribution of the relayed content at the conclusion of the round zero. The relayers were minimally selective (s₁=.02), thereby minimally influential (c_t<.01).
With valence defined from Chinese standpoint, the study also reports that readers favored the negative information the most (58.43%), positive information (28.93%) the second, and the neutral information (12.94%) the least. The pattern of selection is explained by an agitated and alarmed mentality toward Japan among the Chinese readers. By contrast, the released information was overwhelmingly neutral (86.00%), which competed with a small share of positive information (13.87%) and very little negative information (0.14%). The selective pattern of the releasers is explained by a tendency of the Chinese authors, editors, media managers and web regulators to calm and counter the alarm and agitation of the readers aided by the active but unselective relayers.
Devising a novel method, simulation on real data (SORD), the study also forecasts the process and product of the selective spiral, assuming that read per release and relay per read, measured in round zero to represent readers’ and relayers’ preferences respectively, would remain stable in the subsequent rounds. The results show that, in each of the three cases under study, it was readers’ preference that would dominate, monopolize, and eventually monotonize. The speeds of the monotonization, however, differed significantly. The negative info from Chinese standpoint needed over six rounds to climb to the 50% share of voice, and nine rounds to reach the 90% line. The counterpart yardsticks are respectively 26 rounds and 51 rounds for positive info from Japanese standpoint, and six and 11 rounds for negative events by journalism texts. The overwhelming neutral content released at the onset of the round zero appears to have decelerated, delayed and dissuaded the powerful monotonization of agitation and alarm.