省域尺度下新型城镇化与可持续发展的耦合协调研究

China's rapidly-growing new urbanization has adversely affected China's regional sustainable development, which has also been challenged by rising global warming and extreme climate events. Study on the coupling coordination between new urbanization and sustainable development has become an imperative task in advancing China's high-quality economic growth. This paper, based on 2003 to 2019 population, economic, social and eco-environmental data of China's provinces, uses comprehensive index of new urbanization and environmental enhanced sustainable development index(ESDI)to establish a coupling coordination model and Gray Forecast Model GM(1,1), which are applied to study the temporal-spatial evolution of coupling coordination between new urbanization and sustainable development and its developing trend. China's sustainable development largely varies with provinces, quantity of provinces with low ESDI first increased and then fell during 2003 to 2019, while those with high ESDI continuously rose. China's provinces are basically disordered or basically coordinated in their coupling coordination degree, generally showing a changing trend from basically disordered to basically coordinated, leaving most provinces’ new urbanization in lagging or blocked. This paper predicts that from 2020 to 2024, the coupling coordination degree between new urbanization and sustainable development are in basically coordinated in China's 20 provinces, 9 in basically disordered, and only Inner Mongolia in extremely disordered.