广东省台风灾害风险综合评估

Abstract: The typhoon disaster risk in Guangdong province is evaluated according to a general risk
assessment formula by using typhoon data during 1951—2010 and population and statistical data of 2010.
GIS technique is also applied to analyze the classification and distribution of each index. We evaluate
typhoon disaster risk by establishing typhoon path buffers and calculate the typhoon hazard index. The
population and GDP are used to indicate disaster exposure. Five indicators are selected to characterize
susceptibility of two receptors, population and social assets. Then the vulnerable index is calculated by using
the above results. Finally, the risk of typhoon disasters of Guangdong Province can be calculated by the
index of hazard and the index of vulnerability. The results show that: the impact of Typhoon on Guangdong
Province shows a decreasing trend from western Guangdong coastal to the inland, and coastal typhoon risk
is the highest; exposure of population in Guangzhou and Zhanjiang belong to the highest level, while
exposure of economic and social assets in Guangzhou and Shenzhen is classified into the highest level;
cities with higher level population susceptibility index tend to have higher dependency ratio, women
population ratio and lower disposable income per capita; high value of social assets susceptibility index
means relatively low level of economic advancement; with high susceptibility, population of Zhanjiang and
Shanwei is the most vulnerable, and the well-developed cities, such as Guangzhou and Dongguan, though
their susceptibility index is relatively low, have very high exposure value so that the vulnerability indexes
are relatively high. According to the evaluation, the current three cities with the highest typhoon risk are
Zhanjiang, Guangzhou and Foshan. The result of this risk assessment can provide decision support for
disaster risk management in Guangdong Province.