半强制性业绩预告制度对上市公司盈余管理的影响

Considering the tendency of bad news hiding in management,this study investigated whether Chinese semi-mandatory performance forecast system may trigger earnings management. We focused on the term of ‘net profit decreasing more than 50% comparing to that in last year’,and used Chinese A-share listed companies from 2003 to 2016 as our sample. Through adopting earnings distribution test and multivariates regression analysis,we seperately explored the existence and mode selection of earnings management. The result reveals that,at the critical point of ‘net profit decreasing 50%’,earnings distribution is obviously discontinued. And the listed companies locating in the right side near the critical point both have higher accrual earnings management and real earnings management. Further test shows that,above results more likely exist in non-state companies and firms with lower proportion of institutional ownership. Findings are instructive to the investment dicision-making of investors,the regulatory activity of regulators and the policy perfection of policy makers.