农业转移人口定居意愿的影响因素及机制

Based on the simultaneous decision hypothesis of home ownership and settlement intention, the endogeneity problem between home ownership and settlement intention is verified and controlled, and a recursive bivariate probit model is constructed based on new economic theory of migration and multi-locational household livelihood strategy theory to explore the effect of home ownership on settlement intention of rural-urban migrant. The empirical results show that homeownership in the receiving city has a significantly positive effect on settlement intention, and previous studies have underestimated the effect of homeownership on settlement intention. At the same time, family income, marriage, and family mobility, social networks, duration of residence, economic rights in hometown and mobility range all have significant effects on settlement intention of rural-urban migrants. The empirical results confirm that the settlement intention of rural-urban migrants is a family-based “peasant rational” decision, a family spatial arrangement that integrates family members’ development needs, family settlement ability, and settlement benefits and costs under social system exclusion, and it is a multi-locational family livelihood strategy.