人民币替代港币影响因素的实证研究

Since Hong Kong’s return to China, the increasingly close link between mainland and Hong Kong and the rapid development of RMB offshore market in Hong Kong S. A. R. have triggered the discussion on the currency substitution between RMB and Hong Kong dollar. This paper selects quarterly economics and finance data of Hong Kong from 2007 to 2018 to analyze the influence of various economic variables on the substitution of RMB for Hong Kong dollar by establishing SVAR model. Empirical results show that GDP of Hong Kong, differences of inflation rate and interest rate between Chinese mainland and Hong Kong S. A. R., total volume of imports and exports and FDI from mainland all have a positive impact on the substitution of RMB for Hong Kong dollar; the expected exchange rate between RMB and Hong Kong dollar has a negative impact on it; the number of mainland visitors is positively correlated with currency substitution rate in the long run; and the money supply of RMB has no significant influence on currency substitution. Besides, GDP of Hong Kong and exchange rate expectations both have a great impact on currency substitution, and the number of mainland visitors has a certain time-lag effect on the currency substitution rate.