中美战略博弈下的美日同盟与台湾问题: 从实证与结构现实主义的双重视角

This paper analyzes the US-Japan alliance and the Taiwan issue under the Sino-US strategic game from the dual perspectives of empirical approach and structural realism theory. Empirically, the U.S.-Japan alliance is gradually transforming, and Japan behaves belligerent than before. However, the essence in the US-Japan alliance that the US as the leading role and Japan as the subordinate role has not changed. Due to the core driving force of suppressing China, the US-Japan alliance is more inclined to intervene in the Taiwan issue. From the structural realistic aspect, the relative power of the United States is declining, and Japan, as a dependent country, will choose to arm itself. Japan's rational choice on the Taiwan issue is to maintain a “Finnish-style” ambiguous neutrality and seek benefits in the competition of great powers. Therefore, the future of the US-Japan alliance mainly depends on Japan's choice. The Taiwan question is the manifestation of this choice, and the central motive of the choice is the Sino-US conflict.