中国2005—2015年典型法定报告肠道传染病流行趋势及时空集聚分析

Objective To analyze the epidemiologic trends and spatial-temporal cluster features of the typical notifiable intestinal diseases (hepatitis A, dysentery, typhoid & paratyphoid) in China from 2005 to 2015, thus providing evidence for regional-oriented prevention and control measures Methods The incidence rates of hepatitis A, dysentery, typhoid & paratyphoid were collected from China health statistical yearbook and China health and family planning statistical yearbook in 2005-2015 to analyze the trends. Global and local spatial autocorrelation and maps were used to identify and visualize the spatial-temporal clusters. Results The incidence of hepatitis A, dysentery and typhoid & paratyphoid all decreased from 2005 to 2015 (P<0.01 for all). The results of global spatial autocorrelation showed that, the incidence of hepatitis A showed the strongest positive spatial autocorrelation, its Moran’s I decreased from 0.505 in 2005 to 0.445 in 2010 and 0.404 in 2015. The correlation intensity of the incidence of dysentery increased, its Moran’s I increased from 0.367 in 2005 to 0.404 in 2010 and 0.443 in 2015. The correlation intensity of the incidence of typhoid & paratyphoid is the lowest, its Moran’s I decreased from 0.236 in 2005 to 0.135 in 2010 first and then increased to 0.222 in 2015. The results of local spatial autocorrelation showed that, the incidence of hepatitis A showed high-high cluster feature in Xinjiang, Qinghai and Tibet at all the time points, while the high-high cluster area changed slightly with time. the incidence of dysentery always showed high-high cluster feature in Beijing and Tianjin, while the high-high cluster area gradually expanded to Hebei. The high-high cluster area of typhoid & paratyphoid was mainly concentrated in Southwest China. Conclusion The typical notifiable intestinal diseases displayed a downward trend from 2005 to 2015, with the incidence of hepatitis A revealing the strongest correlation density, the government should formulate regional prevention and control measures based on the epidemiologic trends and spatial-temporal changing patterns to control the epidemics of intestinal diseases.