中国省份要素替代弹性估计及增长效应研究

In recent years, with the change in factor distribution patterns and the slowdown of economic growth in China, it is of great importance to analyze the factor allocation and the driving force of growth. As a key parameter, the elasticity of factor substitution deserves more investigations. This paper first employs CES and VES production functions, single-equation and multi-equation system estimation methods to estimate the elasticity of capital-labor substitution and biased technical change of 30 Chinese provinces from 1978 to 2017. Based upon the estimation results, this paper analyzes the technical change and factor allocation of each province. Then, the research further conducts the empirical research on the applicability of the “De La Grandville Hypothesis” in China, using both cross-sectional and panel data. It is concluded that: (1) Regarding the elasticity of factor substitution, there are salient differences in the mean and time-varying characteristics among provinces. Capital and labor are in an alternative relationship in most provinces, and the technical change is labor-biased over half of provinces. Meanwhile, comparing with the actual factor distribution, it appears that problems of factor misallocation occurred in many Chinese provinces during the research period. (2) The “De La Grandville Hypothesis” is supported by both cross-sectional and panel data of China, and the growth effect of the elasticity of factor substitution in the eastern and western regions is significantly stronger. Furthermore, openness and capital deepening can significantly moderate the growth effect in diverse ways at the national and regional levels. These could provide important implications for the construction of the new development mode and the promotion of high-quality development.