Macroeconomic Factors, Police and Crime in Hong Kong,1983-2006

Description

The effects of police, unemployment, and income inequality on crime have long been paradoxes for social scientists. This study aims to investigate the intricate causal linkages between police, unemployment, and income inequality on the one hand and crime on the other by using a time series analysis of quarterly data in Hong Kong from 1983 to 2006. It draws on the recent development of cutting-edge statistical techniques and modelling strategies by using Johansen’s (1991) multivariate cointegrating testing approach based on the maximum-likelihood estimation to test the long-run relationships between police, unemployment, and income inequality and crime and a dynamic regression as used by Corman and Mocan (2000) to test the short-run relationships between the three variables and crime. Crimes are categorized into six types, and each model will control for arrests, poverty, drug use, and the proportion of those aged 15 to 29. From an international comparative perspective, this study will advance the literature on the effects of police, unemployment, and income inequality on crime, explore the underlying theories of the empirical results, and promote the use of sophisticated methodologies in crime research. The empirical results will also have significant policy implications for the Hong Kong Government at a time when cost-benefit analysis has become an important component of regulatory and policy development for many government agencies.