From Persistent Distrust to Resilient Trustors: A Six-Year Longitudinal Study of the Contextual and Individual Determinants of Public Trust in Hong Kong

Description

The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a widespread decline in public trust. In February 2022, the Director- General of the World Health Organization (WHO) recognized the existence of a trust deficit in many different countries and its detrimental impact on collective efforts aimed at combating the pandemic. One recent PEW study (2022) revealed that a mere 20% of U.S. citizens trust their government. While the generation-defining public health crisis of COVID-19 certainly played a role, the broader contextual and psychological roots of this trust deficit remain unclear. This study addresses that research gap by exploring the Framework of Contextual and Individual Determinants of Public Trust (see Figure 1) during and after the pandemic. To the best of our knowledge, this study represents the first examination of trust in Hong Kong and probably in Asian societies that (1) explores the individual and interactive effects of contextual and individual determinants of institutional trust, (2) identifies four distinct institutional trust trajectories (i.e., resilient trustors, tentative converters, cautious progressors, and persistent distrusters), (3) employs various measurement tools, including surveys, the Single-Target Implicit Association Test (STIAT), and focus groups, to capture institutional trust; and (4) utilizes a longitudinal mixed-method approach, combining quantitative and qualitative methods, to investigate institutional trust. Crises such as natural disasters, political upheaval, terrorist attacks, and epidemics strain institutional trust. The Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute (HKPORI) measured significant declines in institutional trust following the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 2003, Occupy Central in 2014, social unrest in 2019, and COVID-19. Notably, the COVID-19 pandemic was distinguished by pandemic intensity (e.g., a high death toll), changes in the political landscape (e.g., national security laws), and social factors related to policy stringency (such as constraints on physical mobility). We further investigated how these contextual factors affected relationships between institutional trust and its individual predictors, including risk perception, media attention, perceived responsiveness, and authoritarian orientation. To date, there is limited understanding of how these diverse factors collectively influence public trust in institutions. Leveraging the PI's ongoing longitudinal projects on COVID-19 in Hong Kong (Figure 1), which encompass a N = 8,841 cross-sectional (Nwave 1 = 3248, Nwave 2 = 1500, Nwave 3 = 1153, Nwave 4 = 1027, Nwave 5 = 1913) and five-wave panel samples (Nwave 2 panel = 1500, Nwave 3 panel = 1153, Nwave 4 panel = 1027, Nwave 5 panel = 694), we observed changes in the public’s institutional trust over the past three years. We also characterized four different longitudinal trajectories of institutional trust: resilient trustors (consistently high trust in institutions), tentative converters (significant shift from initial distrust to a state of partial trust), cautious progressors (gradual increase from a relatively low level of trust), and persistent distrusters (consistently low trust in institutions). These observations highlight the enduring impact of public health crises on trust and underscore the importance of monitoring these changes in various crisis and risk conditions. The proposed study aims to address the trust deficit and promote social cohesion. A longitudinal mixedmethod follow-up study is proposed in Hong Kong from 2024 to 2026, including (1) five follow-up longitudinal surveys with ST-IAT and (2) two rounds of longitudinal focus group interviews, with four focus group interviews in each round. With five waves of longitudinal data collected during and after the pandemic, our study is uniquely positioned to assess public trust in institutions. Besides academic articles, major deliverables will include (1) developing TrustPulse: The Index of Institutional Trust in Hong Kong, (2) theorizing the Framework of Contextual and Individual Determinants of Public Trust by adopting the personsituation approach (Kahle, 2013; Thielmann & Hilbig, 2015), (3) crafting trust-based communication strategies, and (4) generating Trust Insights: In-depth Analysis of Institutional Trust Trajectories in Hong Kong. We will present our findings and disseminate resources through the Hong Kong BRIDGE Platform (click to see prototype) established by the PI and her team. The findings will inform medical institutions/experts, government agencies, news media and social media professionals, and private enterprise, and facilitate communications aimed at enhancing public trust and building a more resilient society in Hong Kong and beyond.