CityU expert assesses worst scenario for coronavirus outbreak in Hong Kong

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Description

Dr Sean Yuan Hsiang-yu, Assistant Professor in the Department of Biomedical Sciences at City University of Hong Kong (CityU), estimates that the worst-case scenario for a novel coronavirus outbreak in the local community could be more than 220 individuals infected over the next two weeks after the Chinese New Year holidays. He cited a joint research project between mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan universities and research institutes at a media briefing on 31 January.

Dr Yuan pointed out that early diagnosis and effective epidemic prevention measures can greatly reduce the risk of community outbreaks.

Period31 Jan 2020 → 4 Feb 2020

Media coverage

TitleCityU expert assesses worst scenario for coronavirus outbreak in Hong Kong
DescriptionIn the worst case scenario, if 300,000 persons return to Hong Kong from the mainland, Dr Sean Yuan Hsiang-yu estimated that 57 of them may be infected with the virus. If the infected individuals have had the virus for eight days, there will be 166 secondary infected cases in the next 2 weeks, which can bring the total number to over 220.

“The number of community infections confirmed in eight days is three times that of infections confirmed in three days. The government should minimise the risk of large-scale community outbreaks at the source,” he said.
Persons
Media name/outletCityU NewsCentre
PlaceHong Kong
Media typeWeb
Producer/AuthorMichelle Liu
Date4/02/20
Linkhttps://www.cityu.edu.hk/media/news/2020/02/04/cityu-expert-assesses-worst-scenario-coronavirus-outbreak-hong-kong
Title城大學者：倘20萬人回港 或釀社區爆發
Description新春期間大量港人回內地探親，城市大學生物醫學系助理教授阮相宇推算，20萬人在農曆新年後回港，會輸入15.4宗新型冠狀病毒感染個案。他認為，15.4宗輸入個案為重要數字，如果港府未來兩周不作為，大可能出現社區爆發。
Persons
Media name/outlet明報
PlaceHong Kong
Media typeWeb
Date1/02/20
Linkhttps://news.mingpao.com/pns/%E8%A6%81%E8%81%9E/article/20200201/s00001/1580495365155/%E5%9F%8E%E5%A4%A7%E5%AD%B8%E8%80%85-%E5%80%9820%E8%90%AC%E4%BA%BA%E5%9B%9E%E6%B8%AF-%E6%88%96%E9%87%80%E7%A4%BE%E5%8D%80%E7%88%86%E7%99%BC
Title城大學者推算感染或增至逾60宗
Description城大生物醫學系助理教授阮相宇利用英國倫敦帝國學院的數學推算模型作基礎，結合流行病學，推算若1月29日至2月2日期間，當20萬人從內地回港後，會帶來15.4宗輸入病例。若按照病毒潛伏期為五天、第一波感染期間（8.4日），每人可傳染2.92人，或會造成45.1宗的第二波感染病例。
Persons
Media name/outlet大公網
PlaceHong Kong
Media typeWeb
Producer/Author黎慧怡
Date1/02/20
Linkwww.takungpao.com.hk/news/232109/2020/0201/411125.html
Title若30萬人從內地返港　城大學者推算2周增222確診個案
Description城市大學生物醫學系助理教授阮相宇以複合種群模式推算疫情發展，指農曆年假期結束港人陸續由內地返港，若在本月29日至下月2日期間有30萬人由內地返港，而個案的平均潛伏期為8天，推算本港將在未來兩周內新增222宗確診個案，包括56.7宗輸入病例及165.5宗第二波感染個案。
Persons
Media name/outlet成報
PlaceHong Kong
Media typeWeb
Date1/02/20
Linkhttps://www.singpao.com.hk/index.php?fi=history&id=110096
Title城大團隊引內地及沙士數據分析　 專家：港兩周恐逾200確診
Description城市大學傳染病模型小組引用內地專家新型冠狀病毒研究及2003年一沙士研究數據製作模型分析，推算未來兩周是本港出現社區爆發的關鍵日子，確診個案可能上升至逾200宗。
Persons
Media name/outlet蘋果日報
PlaceHong Kong
Media typeWeb
Producer/Author袁楚雙
Date31/01/20
Linkhttps://hk.appledaily.com/local/20200201/32CFQIWEWYSKST4ZDLADZZDBVQ/
Title【武漢肺炎】城大學者估算：倘 20 萬港人內地返港ㅤ或輸入 15.4 個病例ㅤ引發 45 宗第二波感染
Description香港城市大學生物醫學系助理教授阮相宇今日（31日）指出，利用倫敦帝國學院的數學推算模型作為基礎，結合流行病學，估算農曆新年假期後，當有 20 萬港人從內地返港，便會帶來 15.4 個輸入病例，有可能導致香港有 45.1 宗第二波感染病例。
Persons
Media name/outletSTANDNEWS
PlaceHong Kong
Media typeWeb
Date31/01/20
Linkhttps://www.thestandnews.com/society/%E6%AD%A6%E6%BC%A2%E8%82%BA%E7%82%8E-%E5%9F%8E%E5%A4%A7%E5%AD%B8%E8%80%85%E4%BC%B0%E7%AE%97-%E5%80%98-20-%E8%90%AC%E6%B8%AF%E4%BA%BA%E5%85%A7%E5%9C%B0%E8%BF%94%E6%B8%AF%E1%85%A0%E6%88%96%E8%BC%B8%E5%85%A5-15-4-%E5%80%8B%E7%97%85%E4%BE%8B%E1%85%A0%E5%BC%95%E7%99%BC-45-%E5%AE%97%E7%AC%AC%E4%BA%8C%E6%B3%A2%E6%84%9F%E6%9F%93/
Title城大研究估計若20萬人從內地返港會帶來15.4宗輸入病例
Description城市大學生物醫學系助理教授阮相宇，利用倫敦帝國學院的數學推算模型作為基礎，結合流行病學，指出在星期三至日期間，若有20萬港人從內地返港，以新型冠狀病毒平均僭伏期約5日計算，估計會帶來15.4宗的輸入病例。
Persons
Media name/outlet881903.com
PlaceHong Kong
Media typeWeb
Date31/01/20
Title本港武漢肺炎確診個案增至12宗 城大阮相宇：每名內地來港者可傳染3人
Description香港城市大學生物醫學系助理教授阮相宇博士，估算出農曆年假期後這些返港人士中，有多少人可能帶有新型冠狀病毒，藉以推算香港會否出現社區爆發、當中潛在的風險。
Persons
Media name/outlet灼見名家
PlaceHong Kong
Media typeWeb
Producer/Author張港欣
Date31/01/20
Linkhttps://www.master-insight.com/%E6%9C%AC%E6%B8%AF%E6%AD%A6%E6%BC%A2%E8%82%BA%E7%82%8E%E7%A2%BA%E8%A8%BA%E5%80%8B%E6%A1%88%E5%A2%9E%E8%87%B312%E5%AE%97-%E5%9F%8E%E5%A4%A7%E9%98%AE%E7%9B%B8%E5%AE%87%EF%BC%9A%E6%AF%8F%E5%90%8D/
Title【武漢肺炎】城大：若30萬人從內地返港　料兩周增222確診個案
Description城市大學生物醫學系助理教授阮相宇推測，農曆年假期結束港人陸續由內地返港，若在本月29日至下月2日期間，30萬人由內地返港，而個案平均潛伏期為8日，則可推算本港將在未來兩周內，將新增222個案，包括56.7宗輸入病例及165.5宗第二波感染個案。
Persons
Media name/outlet香港01
PlaceHong Kong
Media typeWeb
Producer/Author侯彩琳
Date31/01/20
Linkhttps://www.hk01.com/%E7%A4%BE%E6%9C%83%E6%96%B0%E8%81%9E/428486/%E6%AD%A6%E6%BC%A2%E8%82%BA%E7%82%8E-%E5%9F%8E%E5%A4%A7-%E8%8B%A530%E8%90%AC%E4%BA%BA%E5%BE%9E%E5%85%A7%E5%9C%B0%E8%BF%94%E6%B8%AF-%E6%96%99%E5%85%A9%E5%91%A8%E5%A2%9E222%E7%A2%BA%E8%A8%BA%E5%80%8B%E6%A1%88
Title[Wuhan Pneumonia] City University: If 300,000 people return to Hong Kong from the Mainland, the number of confirmed cases will increase by 222 in two weeks
DescriptionRuan Xiangyu, an assistant professor in the Department of Biomedicine of City University, speculated that Hong Kong people will return to Hong Kong from the Mainland one after another during the Lunar New Year holidays.
Persons
Media name/outletThe Limited Times
Media typeWeb
Producer/AuthorHou Cailin
Date31/01/20
Linkhttps://newsrnd.com/news/2020-01-31--%5Bwuhan-pneumonia%5D-city-university--if-300-000-people-return-to-hong-kong-from-the-mainland--the-number-of-confirmed-cases-will-increase-by-222-in-two-weeks.SJg88rdZML.html
Title城大估算假期後將出現更多輸入病例
Description城市大學傳染病模型小組估算農曆新年假期後，數十萬港人從內地返港，將出現更多新型冠狀病毒輸入個案。
Persons
Media name/outletNowNews
PlaceHong Kong
Media typeWeb
Date31/01/20
Linkhttps://news.now.com/home/local/player?newsId=378771