CityU estimate: Patients quarantined after symptoms for 3.5 days

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Description

A possible increase of around 60 infected cases of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) from mid-February to mid-March is projected by Dr Sean Yuan Hsiang-yu, Assistant Professor in the Department of Biomedical Sciences at City University of Hong Kong (CityU). Whether the number of local infections will grow significantly depends on how effective the quarantine measures are at reducing the recontact rate between the high-risk individuals and other people. 
 
Following his estimation last month about the number of possible local cases for citizens returning from the mainland after the Chinese New Year holidays, Dr Yuan applied mathematical model to project a picture of the spread of the epidemic in Hong Kong. In his new projection, he estimated that individuals infected by the virus were quarantined after showing symptoms for around 3.5 days on average.
Period25 Feb 2020 → 26 Feb 2020

Media coverage

Title城大專家:未來兩周或增60確診 社區感染勢飆升 籲檢視隔離成效
Description為了解本港感染數字趨勢,城大生物醫學系助理教授阮相宇根據一月十八日至二月十一日期間新冠肺炎的輸入個案和感染數字,再利用倫敦帝國學院的數學模型,並加入各種防疫參數,推算出患者平均在病發後約三點五天被隔離,若能確保隔離期間沒接觸他人,推算至下月中期間,本港或會新增約六十宗本地感染個案,令累計的本地感染個案會增至逾百宗。
Persons
Media name/outlet東方日報
PlaceHong Kong
Media typeWeb
Date26/02/20
Linkhttps://orientaldaily.on.cc/cnt/news/20200226/00176_023.html
Title城大料未來2周 增60個案
Description新冠肺炎(武漢肺炎)疫情持續,城巿大學生物醫學系助理教授阮相宇利用倫敦帝國學院的數學模型,推算確診患者平均在感染3.5天後才被隔離。
Persons
Media name/outlet香港經濟日報
PlaceHong Kong
Media typeWeb
Date26/02/20
Linkhttps://paper.hket.com/article/2574158/%E5%9F%8E%E5%A4%A7%E6%96%99%E6%9C%AA%E4%BE%862%E5%91%A8%20%E5%A2%9E60%E5%80%8B%E6%A1%88
Title學者推算一個月增60本地感染
Description城市大學生物醫學系助理教授阮相宇按近月疫情發展推算,本港受感染個案在出現病徵後,平均延遲三日半才被送往隔離,無法抑壓傳染源頭。
Persons
Media name/outlet蘋果日報
PlaceHong Kong
Media typeWeb
Producer/Author梁銘恩
Date26/02/20
Linkhttps://hk.appledaily.com/local/20200226/SV3S277NKY46UOJDOJX32YDRTI/
Title城大模型推算 至3月中增60宗本地感染
Description新型冠狀病毒肺炎確診個案持續上升,城大生物醫學系助理教授阮相宇利用數學模型推算,患者平均在出現病徵後約3.5日被隔離,並由此推算,由2月中至3月中,本港有可能新增約60宗本地感染個案。
Persons
Media name/outlet明報新聞網
PlaceHong Kong
Media typeWeb
Date26/02/20
Linkhttps://news.mingpao.com/pns/%E8%A6%81%E8%81%9E/article/20200226/s00001/1582655931762/%E5%9F%8E%E5%A4%A7%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B%E6%8E%A8%E7%AE%97-%E8%87%B33%E6%9C%88%E4%B8%AD%E5%A2%9E60%E5%AE%97%E6%9C%AC%E5%9C%B0%E6%84%9F%E6%9F%93
Title城大專家推算本港確診者病發後3.5日被隔離
Description城大生物醫學系助理教授阮相宇,根據數學模型分析,本港感染新型冠狀病毒的患者,平均在出現病徴後約3.5日被隔離,如果患者在隔離期間沒接觸他人,推算本月中至三月中期間,有機會新增60宗本地感染個案;但假設患者隔離期間可接觸他人,接觸人數是平日的五分一,推算一個月內會新增350宗感染個案。
Persons
Media name/outlet881903.com
PlaceHong Kong
Media typeWeb
Date25/02/20
Linkhttps://www.881903.com/Page/ZH-TW/newsdetail.aspx?ItemId=1267594&csid=261_341
Title城大專家推算 病發後3.5天被隔離 一個月或增60宗社區感染個案
Description香港城市大學(城大)生物醫學系助理教授阮相宇博士利用數學模型重塑本港疫情發展,推算患者平均在出現病徵後約3.5天被隔離,並以此推算由2月中至3月中期間,本港有機會新增約60宗本地感染個案。
Persons
Media name/outlet灼見名家
PlaceHong Kong
Media typeWeb
Date25/02/20
Linkhttps://www.master-insight.com/%E5%9F%8E%E5%A4%A7%E5%B0%88%E5%AE%B6%E6%8E%A8%E7%AE%97-%E7%97%85%E7%99%BC%E5%BE%8C3-5%E5%A4%A9%E8%A2%AB%E9%9A%94%E9%9B%A2-%E4%B8%80%E5%80%8B%E6%9C%88%E6%88%96%E5%A2%9E60%E5%AE%97%E7%A4%BE%E5%8D%80/
TitleCityU estimate: Patients quarantined after symptoms for 3.5 days
DescriptionBy using a model adapted from Imperial College London in the UK, Dr Yuan included different parameters in his projection of the spread of the epidemic in Hong Kong, such as the incubation period of COVID-19 (five days on average) and the time gap between patients showing symptoms of the virus and the point of quarantine. He then estimated possible numbers of imported cases and local infections that might take place between 18 January and 11 February in Hong Kong under different scenarios. After comparing the numbers with actual figures, Dr Yuan deduced that patients were quarantined on average around 3.5 days after showing symptoms.

He suggested that the government review the effectiveness of current quarantine measures so as to reduce the possibility of patients contacting others as far as possible.
Persons
Media name/outletCityU NewsCentre
PlaceHong Kong
Media typeWeb
Producer/AuthorChoi Yiu
Date25/02/20
Linkhttps://www.cityu.edu.hk/media/news/2020/02/25/cityu-estimate-patients-quarantined-after-symptoms-35-days